Given the current state of partisan polarization, it’s unlikely Biden can get majority job approval next year even with the most fortunate set of circumstances. But the good news for him is that he probably doesn’t have to. Job-approval ratings are crucial indicators in a normal presidential reelection cycle that is basically a referendum on the incumbent’s record. Assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, 2024 will not be a normal reelection cycle for three reasons.

  • n0m4n@lemmy.world
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    9 months ago

    Why does anyone presume that his opponent will be the orange guy? If he hasn’t keeled over with hamberders and buckets of KFC, he still has 91 felonies hanging over his head. He likely will be imprisoned, or disqualified by then.

    • Alien Nathan Edward@lemm.ee
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      9 months ago

      Why does anyone presume that his opponent will be the orange guy?

      Because he’s winning the primaries now by some distance, it’s not illegal for him to run from prison and at least one state court has already decided that he did engage in an insurrection but that that doesn’t disqualify him either.

            • Alien Nathan Edward@lemm.ee
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              9 months ago

              Listen, I’m not sure where you get your news, but what I’m reading is that they decided he did, but that didn’t disqualify him.

              • Burn_The_Right@lemmy.world
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                9 months ago

                Found the typical Lemmy user! Always reading things and then thinking about things before commenting on things. You need to go back and re-read what you were reading when you read that, because it’s clear that they decided he did, but that didn’t disqualify him.

    • PhlubbaDubba@lemm.ee
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      9 months ago

      Well for starters a lot of his full trial dates are being set for after the primaries

      They’re basically trying to take what comy did to Clinton and dial it to 11

      • n0m4n@lemmy.world
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        9 months ago

        Speaking of which, the Russian emails, had presumably classified information. The rules over classified documents are to never comment about them, because any information released is another clue about what is contained in actual classified documents. This left Clinton in a limbo of not being able to defend herself, while being smeared. Comey, believed the emails, until they were fully investigated and well after the election. We didn’t hear about the planted parts, one way or the other, because of those same security rules. I DO remember the US security council trying to limit damage after Trump was elected.

        The GOP has a choice of whom to run. I assume there will be a way that will be found, for them to switch candidates, if Trump is in prison, Even if it occurs in the window between his winning the primary, and election, they will find a way. It may even be to their advantage, as the new candidate receives Trumps blessing and gives Trump clemency.

    • spaceghoti@lemmy.oneOP
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      9 months ago

      He shouldn’t have been the nominee in 2016, either. It’s not safe to assume anything at this point.

      • n0m4n@lemmy.world
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        9 months ago

        The Russian playbook of getting dirt to smear an opponent did not work when the Biden hard drive was shown to be Russian sourced. Gulianni’s provider is charged as being a foreign agent, as of a week or so ago.

    • Phegan@lemmy.world
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      9 months ago

      Most of those won’t go to trial until after the election, and the courts have shown zero desire to actually punish him in a meaningful way. I will be very surprised if he is not the candidate

      • agitatedpotato@lemmy.world
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        9 months ago

        Yeah it would be surprising, it would also upend the entire democratic election strategy so not planning for that outcome is still a risk. Biden is a huge liability if anyone but trump comes out to rep the gop.

      • SCB@lemmy.world
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        9 months ago

        Most of those won’t go to trial until after the election

        Literally every trial begins before the election.

    • Professorozone@lemmy.world
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      9 months ago

      You really think Trump will serve any time? If it were anyone else I might agree. Can’t wait to see how this plays out.

    • Subverb@lemmy.world
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      9 months ago

      I’m old and cynical, but my opinion is that Trump will never go to prison. That is a pipe dream.